BREAKING: NBC News and ABC News are both projecting Ted Cruz has defeated O’Rourke.
BREAKING: Republican incumbent Ted Cruz will win Texas’ U.S. Senate race, defeating Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke, @ABC projects based on vote analysis. https://t.co/QF15MHa8Bu #ElectionNight pic.twitter.com/A32oVdpb5S
— ABC News (@ABC) November 7, 2018
The Texas Senate race between Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, and Democrat challenger Rep. ‘Beto’ O’Rourke is a hot topic this cycle, if not as close a race as some of the tighter states and districts.
The latest poll: A Trafalgar Group poll out Monday has Cruz in a comfortable lead of 9 points over O’Rourke, coming in at 52.1% over 43.2%. Trafalgar is a Republican polling outlet. The most recent Emerson poll (October 30) showing Cruz at +3, and the latest Quinnipiac (October 28) showing +5, the RealClearPolitics average is giving Cruz a Cruz +6.8 over O’Rourke.
What pundits are saying: Nate Silver reports that Cruz’s lead narrowed, noting that one of the polls they cite is a Democrat polling outlet, but FiveThirtyEight is still marking the seat as “Likely R”, with a 7-in-9 chance Cruz wins (78.8%). However, Cook Political Report lists the seat as a “toss-up.”
The race, in brief: This Texas race has been the subject of intense national attention, with O’Rourke garnering endorsements and promotion from celebrities and national Democratic figures, and was seen early as an intense battle over the Resistance vs. the Trumpists. It’s also framed as a moral question over border policy and immigration, particularly in the waning days of the campaigns as illegal immigration and the migrant caravan took the political spotlight.
Ted Cruz has made the case that O’Rourke’s outside supporters are just more evidence of his being out of step with Texan voters on most issues, while O’Rourke has argued that Cruz is a dishonest yes-man to Trump, despite Trump having thrashed him in the primaries.
Turnout is always a big factor, and in this Texas race even more so, as Democrats will need to overcome historically low voter turnout in the state in order to push a win over the incumbent Cruz.
Results: Texas polls close at 8 and 9 p.m. EST, or 7 and 8 Central (local) time. Results are expected to begin appearing in Texas races at around 8 p.m. EST.
[Featured image via screengrab]
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